Policy Hive

Category: policy brief

  • Wars and the AI bubble – the downside risk scenarios to the global outlook 2026

    According to the latest edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook, global growth is expected to hold steady at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027—a modest upward revision from the October 2025 forecast. Behind this apparent stability, a set of opposing forces are at play. Headwinds from shifting trade policies, and the Trump administration…

  • Deep dive into French parliamentary discussions on international taxation

    During the annual budget discussions end-October, the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament, considered two proposals that would have fundamentally reshaped France’s tax system for multinational enterprises (MNEs) and for ultra-high-net-worth individuals. The debates provided a unique snapshot of the political divisions in France when it comes to international tax policy. A…

  • Assessing the military in times of re-armament

    Imagine monitoring and assessing a doubling of the public education budget in the next five years but with a number of caveats: This, very unlikely, scenario for education is happening across Europe in another key government function: defence policy. Following a decades-long post-Cold War focus on peace dividends and asymmetric threats, the international landscape has…

  • NGO funding under pressure

    The year to come might be the most challenging one in the history of NGOs. All three key sources of NGO funding – households, public funding, philanthropies – are under stress. The political context could not be more hostile and depressing for NGOs, with shrinking civic space, the rise of far right movement and the…

  • Why are core labour rights so poorly treated in responsible investment frameworks?

    Core labour rights, as defined by the International Labour Organization, cover five principles: freedom of association and effective right to collective bargaining, elimination of all forms of forced or compulsory labour, effective abolition of child labour, elimination of discrimination in respect of employment and occupation and occupational health and safety. There is a sharp contrast…

  • NGO funding challenges

    Following a long period of growth, the financial sustainability of International NGOs (INGOs) is facing challenging times: stagnating donations by middle-class households hard hit by the un-ending series of crises (Covid-19, Energy crisis, rising inequalities), decreasing public funding and ODA flows, excessive geographic concentration of donors in OECD economies, continuing rise in “restricted” donations and…

  • Immigration is the main policy tool at hand to improve French pension sustainability

    The annual report of the French Pensions Advisory Council (Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites, COR) published early June confirms that the pay-as-you-go system is in deficit. But it is a deficit under control in the long term, from -0.4% pt of GDP in 2030 to -0.8 pt around 2050, stabilised thereafter until 2070. If there will…

  • Mapping key advocacy forums on EU-wide ESG policy

    The investment chain Which institutional forums matter when it comes to shaping policy and practices related to ESG and responsible investment in Europe? Mapping out these forums can be based on the “investment chain” that channels money from investors to the real economy. The chain is binding four category of stakeholders It is a circular…

  • From social clause to policy space: the trade union narrative on the WTO

    Abstract Since 1994, the trade union narrative on the WTO has shifted from a single- and pro-active issue – a social clause linking trade liberalisation to core labour standards – to a broader, but more defensive, agenda on preserving governments’ “policy space” at home – containing trade liberalisation to protect public services, industrial policies, access…

  • The outlook and downside risk scenarios for 2024 (Updated)

    The global economy remains in recovery mode from the burst of high inflation of 2022 and monetary tightening that followed and is still under threat of rising geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts. For most regions and countries, GDP growth rates will remain far below the pre-Covid 2010-2019 averages. Much of the slowdown is due to…