The global economy remains in recovery mode from the burst of high inflation of 2022 and monetary tightening that followed and is still under threat of rising geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts. For most regions and countries, GDP growth rates will remain far below the pre-Covid 2010-2019 averages. Much of the slowdown is due to …
Continue reading “The outlook and downside risk scenarios for 2024 (Updated)”
The downside risk scenarios identified in the latest flagship reports by international organisations (IMF, OECD, WB, UN, EC) and central banks (BIS, ECB, US Federal reserve) are recapped in the following flow chart – including where they intersect most. Overall, the most cited risk scenarios: (i) a monetary tightening that gets out of control because …
Continue reading “Downside risk scenarios by international organisations”
Geopolitical risks feature unusually high in economic outlooks by international organisations. The challenge for economists is to predict and “quantify” the economic consequences of geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts. Broad trends can of course be drawn with respect to trade and investment flows (retrenchment) and to the efficiency of multilateralism (weakening and polarisation). From an …
The traditional batch of annual economic outlook reports released end of 2022 and in January this year – including the IMF (October & January update ), OECD (November), World Bank (January), the European Commission (November), the European Central Bank (December) & US Federal Reserve (November) – all come with the same message: at best the …
Continue reading “The outlook and downside risk scenarios for 2023-2024”
Paris, 30 July 2022 The recent flagship reports by leading international forums – the IMF in April and in July, the WEF in May, the OECD, World Bank and BIS in June respectively – offer a fairly consistent picture of the years to come: in 2022, a peak in inflation and, in response, a gradual …
